The lithium price cycle has moved fast. After collapsing through 2024 and 2025 as Chinese oversupply weighed on the market, battery grade lithium carbonate rose sharply into early 2026. That rally has since cooled, with spodumene drifting from its recent highs as idle capacity, including PLS Group’s Ngungaju plant, Mineral Resources‘ Bald Hill and Core Lithium‘s Finniss, comes back online through 2026 and 2027. Crucially, this supply response looks far more contained than the one that hammered prices by as much as 90 percent between 2022 and 2024, because the development pipeline behind it is nowhere near as advanced.
The long term demand story remains intact. Global EV sales topped 20 million units in 2025, roughly a quarter of all new cars sold, and are tracking toward 27 to 28 percent of sales this year. Grid scale battery storage is expanding quickly, and a newer source of demand, batteries for AI data centres, is broadening the market beyond EVs alone. For investors, that combination of a cooled off price and a structurally growing demand base is exactly what creates an entry point worth paying attention to.
For the full picture on how the sector works, types of companies and what drives the lithium price, see our ASX lithium sector overview.





