AVA Risk (ASX:AVA): Growing sales in a mining boom is the key

2 minutes ago

Why we are looking at AVA Risk?

The stock is in the growth phase with patience needed to determine whether it achieves the goal of $70-100m sales in the next few years, more than double where they are now. Demand should not be a factor, with commodities at record levels. But announcements thus far indicate it will be a stretch and cash levels are low. The stock is good value if sales can be achieved, but uncertainty is high.

At a Glance

Sector	Information Technology
Industry	Technology hardware & equipment
Activity	Security technology and hardware
ASX Code	AVA
Share Price	$0.046 (at 24 Aug 2026)
Market Cap	$13.4M

AVA risk share chart 24 August 2026

Who is AVA Risk?

Ava Risk Group (AVA) is a global leader in providing technologies and services to protect critical and high-value assets and infrastructure. It operates three business segments– Future Fibre Technology (FFT), BQT Solutions (BQT) and GJD Manufacturing (GJD). FFT manufactures and markets smart fibre optic sensing systems for security and condition monitoring for a range of applications including perimeters, pipelines, conveyors, power cables and data networks. BQT is a specialist in the development, manufacture and supply of high-security biometric readers, security access control and electronic locking products. GJD is a specialist in the development and manufacture of perimeter detectors, illuminators, and ANPR cameras.

How does AVA Risk make money?

AVA has three divisions, but the key is “Detect”, which generates over half of sales from fibre optic sensing technologies, one being Aura Ai-X used by mining companies. The company is making more noise about country boundary sensing business, which is not surprising given the stage of geopolitical uncertainty.

“Access” sells a locking technology and has a deal with the global giant dormakaba, signed late CY21, unlocking US and Europe.

“Illuminate” develops automatic number plate recognition cameras and perimeter detectors. This business has performed below expectations, resulting in a $1.5m write-down of goodwill.

What gives AVA Risk an edge?

There is certainly demand for the group’s security services and products from mining, transport and countries, such as Poland, which have common boundaries. The diverse range of income is impressive. A problem has been long sales-lead times.

What’s New?

FY26 Revenue expected to be $26m, below guidance of $34-37m. The Middle East problems are a factor, but the balance sheet remains resilient, despite $2.2m in debt due this year. The disappointment continues to be sales, which are slipping, leading to structural losses for the security specialist.

Bull Points

Winning contracts

Technology for the times

Bear Points

Limited transparency

Subscale for the opportunity

We are keeping a close eye on this stock. Management has ambition but we need to see evidence soon that big contracts with Telstra and other telecommunications companies (the company calls this “adjacencies”) business is realised.

The core business of providing security systems for mining & national borders seems to be solid – certainly sales & margins are being maintained, but this remains at levels below where they need to be to achieve profit growth. No doubt there is a great deal of operating leverage, but we need to see real evidence, not simply green shoots.